Just how predictable is the trajectory of a membership business?

That’s a question that’s on my mind. After eight years of studying the mechanics of membership, I have a lot of evidence that most membership businesses are not only predictable, but extremely predictable.

And there’s one expectation that, if set properly, will ensure that you operate a membership that’s sustainable over the long run.

That expectation is this: Your results will get worse over time.

Let’s dive in.

A look at what happens when the period of easy membership growth ends.

I’ve seen some incredibly successful membership launches. The early months of membership can feel especially rewarding as new members flock to your new offering.

But believing this early wave of membership acquisition is an indicator of what’s to come in future months (or years) is often a trap for an operator.

For nearly every operator and organization I’ve worked with, there’s one thing that happens consistently…

Their results worsen over time.

This occurrence can take on many forms. Some examples:

Now, remember, a membership business can still grow under the above circumstances, it just grows slower.

But often, that pace of growth will fall below the pace at which the operator’s costs rise.

And this is precisely the point where many operators are forced to make decisions that are reactionary rather than strategic.

My goal is to keep you out of the reactionary line of thinking and in the strategic one.

The first step in doing that is acknowledging your results will worsen over time.

But more importantly, understanding the forces that drive worsening results will position you to turn this expected occurrence into a major opportunity.

📌 Info Sheet: The Drivers of Worsening Membership Results

The tactics for responding to niche audiences that become saturated quickly.

Niche audiences are powerful audiences. As a membership operator, you’re faced with the opportunity (and challenge) of serving an ultra-focused segment of your market.

Most operators begin to feel the significant effects of a saturated market at some point within their first year of membership operation.

📌 Resource: Use Parts 2 and 3 in this guide to successfully differentiate your membership product in a niche market that’s easily saturated.

I’ll leave you with one final thought and one final question today.

Feeling like your audience is saturated and fatigued is simply proof of demand. But your membership’s product has to evolve over time with your market, or else it will fall out of favor.

Consumers reward what feels the best to them. But unfortunately, many operators and organizations attempt to capture entire markets at rapid pace and scale, exhausting any and all resources along the way.

Would you rather:

Be the biggest, most-recognized membership in your market for a season?

Or be around for ten, fifteen or twenty years and be the best once or twice?

Think about it.

My goal is for this email to be the most valuable thing that comes across your inbox each Tuesday. If I’m hitting that mark, share this newsletter with your staff, a team member or friend (just copy and share this URL).

See you next week.

-Michael