Issue #32 - October 14th, 2025
Written by Michael Gillespie
In this issue:
Perspective: The numbers are in: Growth is steady and quiet signals are telling the whole story
Insight: What the numbers really say about membership: Actionable insights and takeaways
Outlook: Notes on the new look of membership growth
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“The membership landscape isn’t cooling, it’s concentrating.”
As we wrap up Q3, the membership landscape carries a different rhythm than years past…
The breakneck growth of the early membership wave has leveled into something more grounded - steady, deliberate, and mature.
Operators aren’t chasing scale for scale’s sake anymore. They’re tightening their systems, refining their models, and focusing on sustainable growth rather than big, flashy sales efforts.
Today’s issue is aimed at giving you a clearer read on where things stand across the membership market.
Below is membership’s current pulse heading into the final stretch of the year along with the high-level metrics I’ve been tracking all year long.
Let’s dive in.
PERSPECTIVE
A Year of Stabilization: By the Numbers
Compared to this time last year, the membership economy looks steadier and more measured. Every operator I talk to echoes this observation as their programs show clear signs of maturation along with the membership market itself.
Here are the Q3 metrics I’m tracking for membership operators (year-over-year) at Memberful:
Average MRR growth: +3.2% year-over-year (down from 7.8% last year)
Average annual churn rate: 9.8% (up from 8.4%)
Average transaction value of first-time signups: $37.72 (up from $34.24)
Top acquisition channels: Instagram and newsletters
So what does all of this tell us?
Growth slowed a bit and churn crept up. But at the same time, pricing increased and members are still joining.
That’s a quiet signal of maturity. Operators are charging more and still converting, even as acquisition becomes more and more competitive - which I’m sure you’ve felt this year.
The data tell us this isn’t a story of decline, it’s a story of consolidation. The market is normalizing after years of fast, sometimes chaotic expansion.
And right now, seasoned operators are finding their footing for navigating the runway ahead.
INSIGHT
Data Insights: What the Numbers Really Mean
The most successful operators this year aren’t necessarily the ones adding the most new members. They’re the ones holding onto them longer and charging closer to the true value of their work.
Below are the clear themes that emerged during Q3.
Depth is Beating Speed
The rush for fast acquisition is giving way to stability and smarter retention. A modest 3.2% growth rate doesn’t sound headline-worthy, but it’s sustainable. These are steady memberships, not one-hit spikes.
Price Confidence is Rising
That $37.72 average transaction value is a healthy sign for new members. Operators are moving past “how low can I go?” and beginning to ask, “What’s this really worth?” Value is trending up and members are responding.
Organic Channels Still Reign
Instagram and newsletters continue to be the most effective acquisition paths. It’s proof that personal connection and storytelling still outperform paid reach for membership-driven businesses.
Churn Is a Wake-Up Call, Not a Warning
9.8% churn isn’t catastrophic, but it’s a reminder that members need ongoing reasons to stay. Engagement and renewal strategies are becoming the most leveraged growth tools for the year ahead.
Membership is maturing. The early wave of easy wins has passed, and what’s left are the operators who are in it for the long game - building trust, deepening value, and optimizing what they already have.
OUTLOOK
The Membership Flywheel and the New Look of Growth
Growth looks different now. It’s slower, steadier, and more strategic. But that’s what long-term success in this space has always looked like.
In fact, I’d argue that this environment is an operator’s dream - because it allows for true value discovery between members and operators.
This is an environment that rewards value consistently.
Looking ahead, the operators who will thrive in 2026 aren’t necessarily the ones with the flashiest growth curves - they’re the ones who’ve built resilience. The ones who can weather plateaus, who know how to adapt, and who understand that membership is more marathon than sprint.
If this year has taught us anything so far, it’s that momentum doesn’t always look like acceleration.
Sometimes, it looks like endurance.
So here’s what’s worth considering as we move into Q4:
The data says growth is slowing. Experience says it’s stabilizing. The difference is perspective - and that’s precisely what will determine your long-term outcomes in membership.
My takeaway?
These numbers don’t point to decline. They point to maturity - a shift from chasing growth to mastering it.
Think about it.